Bracketology: Possible seeding???

[ColonialCrazy]

It's that time! The Colonials, for the first time this season, have made an appearance in Joe Lunardi's bracket. The beauty? Unlike the last few years, they wont be coming off! We're only four days from Selection Sunday, when we will officially know RMU's fate, but Colonials Corner is here to breakdown the possibilities, and will update day-by-day.

Before we dive in, it needs to be said. Robert Morris will likely be playing in Dayton as part of the first four, which is really a play-in round. Those games are Tuesday/Wednesday right after Selection Sunday.

Here is the NCAA selection sheet for the Colonials. You can look at other teams selection sheets here too.

Of the current qualified teams (List here), and remaining top seeds in other tournaments (assuming they won their league), the Colonials would be either the 68th or 67th seeded team. But as RMU fans know well, the top seeds don't always win. RMU could still pickup upsets in Patriot, MEAC, SWAC, Southland, Big Sky, Big West, MAC, Sun Belt, and WAC. Gotta see how things play out.

The first opportunity comes tonight. Colonial fans should pull for American to defeat Lafayette. The Leopards of Lafayette have a much better resume, and beat RMU head to head.

One note. There are benefits to playing in the first four. You get a nationally televised NCAA tournament game against a team that you have a real shot against. You also can make your league some serious cash with the win, picking up a tournament win unit. The win financially counts the same as a win in the field of 64. Of course the downside (which has happened to Mount and LIU the past two years), a loss and you are out before the first tip-off on the opening Thursday.

The one team Colonial fans should hope to avoid? Manhattan. The Jaspers are loaded with talent, went to the tournament as a 12 seed and almost beat Louisville last season. They also have a high major coach in Steve Masiello. This is a team with a 16 seed resume, but 12 seed talent. They are a power mid-major.

Current status: 16 seed, play in.


This post was edited on 3/11 5:18 PM by ColonialCrazy

This post was edited on 3/11 5:21 PM by ColonialCrazy

 

[ColonialCrazy]

The Lafayette Leopards won the Patriot League, so you can cross that league off the list. The Colonials will almost certainly be seeded behind them. Also of note, these two met in the regular season, so I would guess that the committee will try to avoid a rematch.

 

[Original_RMC]

 

[ColonialCrazy]

March 13th update:

There were no championships game last night, so no changes in the projected seed line. The Colonials would still likely be slotted in the "First Four" as a 16 seed, taking on another 16 seed for the right to enter the 64 team bracket.

Some games to keep an eye on today.

The SWAC semifinals are today. Prairie View A&M, Alabama State, and Southern would be the teams that Colonial fans should pull for. If Texas Southern, the league favorite wins this league (they have also beating Michigan State and Kansas State), they will have a better resume than RMU.

Cross Conference-USA off the list. All four semifinal participants will have a better profile (not too surprising, this league is usually pretty good).

The Southland semi's start at 6pm. Out of the four remaining teams, only Texas A&M CC would have a shot to finish below RMU on the seed list. This league features three strong mid-majors in SF-Austin, Sam Houston State, and NW State. If Tex A&M CC were to win the league, they would pick up two more big wins, so don't look for the Colonials to move up here.

MEAC: If NC Central wins the league (undefeated in league play) they will be a 14 or higher. Even Norfolk State has a slightly better profile than RMU (especially if they add a win over NC Central). Colonial fans should pull for the two underdogs, Hampton and Del State.

The Sun Belt is still playing the QF round, so lots of ball to go there.

All four participants in the MAC will finish above RMU on the seed list.

When Weber State lost in OT to Montana last night, any hope of the Big Sky champion finishing with a worse resume went out the door. All four participants stack up well compared to RMU.

There is hope in the Big West. If Hawaii wins the league, they would finish right around RMU. The other three semi-final participants all have better resumes.

The final conference, the WAC provides hope as well. Out of the four semifinal participants, only NM State would finish ahead of RMU. They are however, major favorites.

Outlook: Book those hotels in Dayton.

This post was edited on 3/13 11:38 AM by ColonialCrazy

 

[ColonialCrazy]

NC Central lost to Delaware State, and Hampton beat Norfolk State in the MEAC semifinals. Great news for RMU, as neither team playing in the finals will have a better resume than the Colonials Sunday night. Could the Colonials sneak out of Dayton (First Four)? This is a start.

 

[ColonialCrazy]

Texas Southern won tonight to advance to the SWAC title game, but upon further review, they will represent the league in the NCAA tournament. Southern, their opponent in the title game, is ineligible for the tournament. The tigers seem to have a better resume than RMU, but should also be in the first four.

 

[ColonialCrazy]

One day until Selection Sunday!

Plenty of title games that could impact the Colonials.

Right now, I would estimate that RMU needs two-three upsets from teams with similar or worse resumes to stand a chance at getting out of Dayton, and four or five upsets to get off the 16 seed line altogether (not likely to happen at this point).

As noted above, the MEAC champion will help RMU, both teams (Hampton and Delaware State) pulled semi-final upsets and will finish below RMU on the seed line. Game is at 1pm on ESPN2 if you want to scout a potential opponent.

Middle Tennessee State plays UAB in the Sun Belt title. Middle has a slightly better resume compared to RMU, but it's not a ton better. Pull for Middle at 3:30, FS1.

The last two games are late night! Robert Morris needs a Seattle win over Mew Mexico State (ESPNU, 11pm) and a Hawaii win over UC Irvine at 11:30 on ESPN2.

RMU could still potentially get help from the Sun Belt (UL Monroe) but that tournament is only at the semifinal round.

Other championship games that could have impact. Stony Brook at Albany (11am, ESPN2), Eastern Washington vs Montana (9pm, ESPNU), though all four of these teams seem to have slightly better resumes.

One last note. While resumes and numbers matter, sometimes logistics get in the way. For instance, Hawaii --should they win the Big West-- would certainly have the resume of a 16 seed that should be in the First Four. Would the committee really send them all the way from the islands out to Dayton, just to fly all the way back out west? Or would they simply place them as a straight 16 seed in the West region? My money would be on the latter.

A lot of times true seeding can take the back seat to logistics for the 16 and 15 seeds. It could help RMU, it could hurt RMU. We will know in just over 24 hours.

This post was edited on 3/14 9:49 AM by ColonialCrazy

 

[Carlester]

Barring a Seattle upset of NMSU, I'm thinking the Dayton teams are MEAC champ, RMU, Lafayette and Manhattan. Texas Southern won their conference and has wins over Mich St. and Kansas State. North Florida was the ASun regular season winners so I think that gives them a leg up as well. Montana potentially could replace Manhattan but they have a tough game v EWU just to get in.

I doubt the committee would have us play Lafayette again so my thought would be Lafayette v. MEAC and RMU v. Manhattan. Winner of our game would play Kentucky to setup either a rematch of our NIT game or Massiello v. his alma mater.

 

[ColonialCrazy]

Right now, that certainly seems like the most possible outcome. Of course, that's probably the most difficult opponents that RMU could play. Manhattan is a very good team, with a bad resume. And Kentucky is well...undefeated.

 

[ColonialCrazy]

Selection Sunday!

The Colonials will know their fate at 6pm.

Seattle and Hawaii lost last night, so expect the Colonials to be on the 16 line. My final guess, the First Four will feature Hampton, Robert Morris, Lafayette and Manhattan. The Tuesday game winner will play the 1 seed in Louisville (will 100 percent be Kentucky) and the Wednesday night winner will likely play in Charlotte Friday (either Duke or Virginia).

Best case scenario for RMU in my opinion. Hampton in the First Four with the winner playing UVA. Worst case (which really isn't a 'worse case,' it's the NCAA tournament!) Manhattan with the winner playing UK.