It is....alive!
After a nearly yearlong hiatus, ColonialsCorner's version of Bracketology is back. For those who missed our foray into the suddenly very popular process of projecting seeds and what-not for the NCAA college basketball tournament. But unlike all of the national and regional publications who do a full tournament bracket, ColonialsCorner is focused solely on two things:
- What seed might the NEC champion get?
- What one-bid leagues need to go crazy for the NEC champ to get a bump up the seed list?
First, who will be the NEC champion? Obviously the champion's resume matters, but we're still a few weeks away from figuring that all out. And rather than go with looking at how the season ended today and arbitrarily declaring first place Robert Morris as the champion, we're going to include the team right behind the Colonials - Bryant - as well.
The best tool to see a regular update of how all the potential tournament teams stack up, from the No. 1 seeds to the one-bid winners, is the awesome website http://bracketmatrix.com/
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WHERE THE NEC SITS
Thanks to a rough non-conference schedule that didn't provide many marquee wins for the two teams in consideration, it's no surprise that the aggregate score for Robert Morris on bracketmatrix.com is a paltry 15.93. It basically means only a handful of projections have Robert Morris off the 16 seed line.
That's not a total loss. I've long argued that if you're not going to be a 14-seed or 15-seed and have a chance (albeit slim) to knock off a top seed, then try to grab that extra play-in game money by getting a win and playing a second NCAA Tournament game (teams get NCAA money for their conference for every round they play in).
Bryant, for what it's worth, is listed in the four brackets Robert Morris is not in as a 16-seed.
Since the seeding is pretty much universal for RMU/Bryant, we don't need to go in depth and see who has picked what. But a quick perusal of the major sites (such as ESPN) provides enough context.
WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN
So who can help the NEC move off the 16 seed line and gun for a major upset? The following conferences could impact where the NEC champ ends up in the bracket in March.
TOO STRONG
MAAC - One of the best mid-major conferences this year, something
truly bizarre would have to happen here. Iona, Manhattan, Canisius and
Quinnipiac all have RPIs better than 100 and are threats to finish with
20 wins before the MAAC Tournament. A 5 or 6 seed upset - rare, but
possible - would be required for the MAAC to drop from a 13 or 14 seed
to a 16 seed that's behind the NEC.
OVC - Belmont is a beast and a heavy favorite, as usual. But the top things out quickly. If Belmont somehow falls, Morehead State is the next strongest candidate and would still likely finish in front of the NEC. Beyond that, it could get interesting, though Eastern Kentucky would be third in line and they still have a better overall resume. Probably no help here.
CAA - The top of the CAA is back, thanks to Delaware's success. RMU knows how good the Blue Hens are, and the team's nipping at UD's heals aren't bad either. Towson, Drexel, William & Mary all should have RPIs better than 140 plus Top 100 wins. RMU and Bryant might have the RPI to challenge, but they won't have the wins.
Southland - Like the OVC, the Southland isn't quite as deep as the MAAC or CAA, but the top is ruled by a pretty dominant force in Stephen F. Austin. A top 75 team, SFA would have to suffer a major upset. And if it's at the hands of Sam Houston State, then the NEC won't benefit one bit.
Big West - UC Santa Barbara and UC Irvine probably can't be surpassed, and Hawaii and Long Beach State are close enough to those two in terms of an overall profile that they'd receive and RPI bump from beating the UCs and land a 14 or 15 seed. Too much has to happen for the NEC
Patriot League - See above with the Big West. Just replace the names. Boston has the best profile and the lead, American and Holy Cross aren't far behind and would surpass the NEC champ. Having three teams fall just is too much to ask for.
TOO WEAK
Big South - Coastal Carolina is currently the conference leader, but this conference really could end up with anyone on top. The good news is they're destined for the 16 seed and probably the play-in game. No one in the conference is expected to finish with an RPI better than 200, and 20 wins is almost out of reach.
SWAC - Southern leads the way. They're not eligible, though they're appealing. Even if Southern makes it, they're behind the NEC right now. If they don't, then the SWAC isn't just a 16-seed, but a guaranteed play-in game participant.
JUST RIGHT?
Atlantic Sun - Mercer is a known commodity, and they're as good as usual. The rest is ripe for the picking. Florida Gulf Coast might get a name bump, but they're not what they were under Andy Enfield last year. If Mercer falls, so might the Atlantic Sun, and that might be enough of a boost for the NEC champ to move up.
America East - Vermont has 14/15 seed written all over it as a 20-win team and an RPI right around 100. But after that, it gets as soft as some of the mountain snow in the Northeast. Stony Brook is the only other team that could hit 20 wins, but it has just two wins against teams above 200 in the RPI. RMU, for instance, has five.
Southern - If it's Davidson, the Wildcats probably challenge as a 15-seed. If it's Elon or someone else, the SoCon is a 16-seed. Davidson's case isn't guaranteed, though. They have a profile very similar to RMU and maybe just another slip-up or two while still winning the SoCon would be enough to vault the NEC past the SoCon on the seed list.
WAC - Another need for an upset. If it's New Mexico State, there's no chance the NEC gets a bump. If it's anyone else, then the NEC should rejoice. Besides NMSU, the next best option is Utah Valley, which has 16-seed all over their resume.
Big Sky - Neck and neck with the NEC right now, the Big Sky traditionally has a similar profile to its fellow one-bid friends out east. Weber State is the leader, and they're probably just a notch or two above RMU/Bryant right now. Anyone other than Weber State likely guarantees a 16-seed for the Big Sky.
MEAC - Already below the NEC pick in some brackets, the only thing propping the MEAC up is North Carolina Central's upset win over North Carolina State. The MEAC tends to do some bizarre things to itself in the conference tournament, so Central should feel far from safe. None of the other MEAC schools should end up above 200, so the NEC should root for an upset.
After a nearly yearlong hiatus, ColonialsCorner's version of Bracketology is back. For those who missed our foray into the suddenly very popular process of projecting seeds and what-not for the NCAA college basketball tournament. But unlike all of the national and regional publications who do a full tournament bracket, ColonialsCorner is focused solely on two things:
- What seed might the NEC champion get?
- What one-bid leagues need to go crazy for the NEC champ to get a bump up the seed list?
First, who will be the NEC champion? Obviously the champion's resume matters, but we're still a few weeks away from figuring that all out. And rather than go with looking at how the season ended today and arbitrarily declaring first place Robert Morris as the champion, we're going to include the team right behind the Colonials - Bryant - as well.
The best tool to see a regular update of how all the potential tournament teams stack up, from the No. 1 seeds to the one-bid winners, is the awesome website http://bracketmatrix.com/
[/URL]
WHERE THE NEC SITS
Thanks to a rough non-conference schedule that didn't provide many marquee wins for the two teams in consideration, it's no surprise that the aggregate score for Robert Morris on bracketmatrix.com is a paltry 15.93. It basically means only a handful of projections have Robert Morris off the 16 seed line.
That's not a total loss. I've long argued that if you're not going to be a 14-seed or 15-seed and have a chance (albeit slim) to knock off a top seed, then try to grab that extra play-in game money by getting a win and playing a second NCAA Tournament game (teams get NCAA money for their conference for every round they play in).
Bryant, for what it's worth, is listed in the four brackets Robert Morris is not in as a 16-seed.
Since the seeding is pretty much universal for RMU/Bryant, we don't need to go in depth and see who has picked what. But a quick perusal of the major sites (such as ESPN) provides enough context.
WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN
So who can help the NEC move off the 16 seed line and gun for a major upset? The following conferences could impact where the NEC champ ends up in the bracket in March.
TOO STRONG
MAAC - One of the best mid-major conferences this year, something
truly bizarre would have to happen here. Iona, Manhattan, Canisius and
Quinnipiac all have RPIs better than 100 and are threats to finish with
20 wins before the MAAC Tournament. A 5 or 6 seed upset - rare, but
possible - would be required for the MAAC to drop from a 13 or 14 seed
to a 16 seed that's behind the NEC.
OVC - Belmont is a beast and a heavy favorite, as usual. But the top things out quickly. If Belmont somehow falls, Morehead State is the next strongest candidate and would still likely finish in front of the NEC. Beyond that, it could get interesting, though Eastern Kentucky would be third in line and they still have a better overall resume. Probably no help here.
CAA - The top of the CAA is back, thanks to Delaware's success. RMU knows how good the Blue Hens are, and the team's nipping at UD's heals aren't bad either. Towson, Drexel, William & Mary all should have RPIs better than 140 plus Top 100 wins. RMU and Bryant might have the RPI to challenge, but they won't have the wins.
Southland - Like the OVC, the Southland isn't quite as deep as the MAAC or CAA, but the top is ruled by a pretty dominant force in Stephen F. Austin. A top 75 team, SFA would have to suffer a major upset. And if it's at the hands of Sam Houston State, then the NEC won't benefit one bit.
Big West - UC Santa Barbara and UC Irvine probably can't be surpassed, and Hawaii and Long Beach State are close enough to those two in terms of an overall profile that they'd receive and RPI bump from beating the UCs and land a 14 or 15 seed. Too much has to happen for the NEC
Patriot League - See above with the Big West. Just replace the names. Boston has the best profile and the lead, American and Holy Cross aren't far behind and would surpass the NEC champ. Having three teams fall just is too much to ask for.
TOO WEAK
Big South - Coastal Carolina is currently the conference leader, but this conference really could end up with anyone on top. The good news is they're destined for the 16 seed and probably the play-in game. No one in the conference is expected to finish with an RPI better than 200, and 20 wins is almost out of reach.
SWAC - Southern leads the way. They're not eligible, though they're appealing. Even if Southern makes it, they're behind the NEC right now. If they don't, then the SWAC isn't just a 16-seed, but a guaranteed play-in game participant.
JUST RIGHT?
Atlantic Sun - Mercer is a known commodity, and they're as good as usual. The rest is ripe for the picking. Florida Gulf Coast might get a name bump, but they're not what they were under Andy Enfield last year. If Mercer falls, so might the Atlantic Sun, and that might be enough of a boost for the NEC champ to move up.
America East - Vermont has 14/15 seed written all over it as a 20-win team and an RPI right around 100. But after that, it gets as soft as some of the mountain snow in the Northeast. Stony Brook is the only other team that could hit 20 wins, but it has just two wins against teams above 200 in the RPI. RMU, for instance, has five.
Southern - If it's Davidson, the Wildcats probably challenge as a 15-seed. If it's Elon or someone else, the SoCon is a 16-seed. Davidson's case isn't guaranteed, though. They have a profile very similar to RMU and maybe just another slip-up or two while still winning the SoCon would be enough to vault the NEC past the SoCon on the seed list.
WAC - Another need for an upset. If it's New Mexico State, there's no chance the NEC gets a bump. If it's anyone else, then the NEC should rejoice. Besides NMSU, the next best option is Utah Valley, which has 16-seed all over their resume.
Big Sky - Neck and neck with the NEC right now, the Big Sky traditionally has a similar profile to its fellow one-bid friends out east. Weber State is the leader, and they're probably just a notch or two above RMU/Bryant right now. Anyone other than Weber State likely guarantees a 16-seed for the Big Sky.
MEAC - Already below the NEC pick in some brackets, the only thing propping the MEAC up is North Carolina Central's upset win over North Carolina State. The MEAC tends to do some bizarre things to itself in the conference tournament, so Central should feel far from safe. None of the other MEAC schools should end up above 200, so the NEC should root for an upset.
