Over the last decade, few exercises have been more futile than trying to pick the Northeast Conference tournament champion. Upsets run rampant, and while that typically makes the games incredibly fun to watch, it creates headaches for those of us trying to make a prediction.
But there are some trends. In the last ten years, the No. 1 seed has won the tournament five times. That's a 1-in-2 chance over the decade, but that's better than any other seed. In fact, if you're not one of the top four seeds, forget it. No team outside of the top four has won the NEC Tournament in the last decade.
Sorry, Mount St. Mary's, CCSU, St. Francis (Pa.) and Fairleigh Dickinson, but 2014 won't be your year. You may win a game - maybe even two - but you're not going dancing.
Of the other three seeds besides Numero Uno, each has won at least once. The two best options are for the No. 2 seed and the No. 4 seed, as both have won twice. Mount St. Mary's (2007-08) and LIU Brooklyn (2012-13) were the latest to do it as No. 4 seeds, while Robert Morris (2009-10) and Fairleigh Dickinson (2004-05) did it as No. 2 seeds. the only No. 3 seed to advance was Monmouth in 2005-06.
The only other common thread is that the champions have generally had the league's best offensive to defensive efficiency differential. It hasn't always been positive - the NEC in the early 2000s was pretty awful in that regard - but the best in that category has almost always moved on. Most years, that team has been carried by one of the league's best defensive efficiency ratings (both overall and in NEC play), and bolstered that with an average or better offense. LIU upset the applecart a bit with their pro-offense push, so nothing is a guarantee, but there's no one like the Blackbirds in this year's field.
All of this is a long winded way of saying that ColonialsCorner expects to see familiar faces in the final.
QUARTERFINALS
#1 Robert Morris 71, #8 Fairleigh Dickinson 62
#2 Wagner 68, #7 Central Connecticut State 59
#3 Bryant 75, #6 St. Francis (Pa) 62
#5 Mount St. Mary's 76, #4 St. Francis Brooklyn 74
Motivation will be a major factor for Robert Morris moving forward. The semifinal loss to Mount St. Mary's last year still burns, even though they've beaten the Mount twice this year. Robert Morris just saw FDU when the Colonials weren't motivated and were down to seven guys. That won't be an issue this time around, though FDU has enough weapons to keep it close for a while. My gut says CCSU as the upset, but my gut's notoriously inconsistent. Wagner's done especially well when facing teams the second time around; Jamion Christian's crew does really well with adjustments.
CCSU should actually be upset that they couldn't quite turn it on a touch sooner, because the Blue Devils would be a major threat to upset Bryant. Instead, the Bulldogs should survive a St. Francis (Pa.) squad in the midst of a tailspin. Finally, Mount St. Mary's is just the better overall team, and St. Francis Brooklyn has a really bad habit of trying to run with up tempo teams when it can't. The Terriers are just 1-3 against the more freewheeling teams of the NEC.
SEMIFINALS
#1 Robert Morris 72, #4 Mount St. Mary's 65
#2 Wagner 74, #3 Bryant 61
We've come full circle. But this time, Robert Morris knows how to beat Mount St. Mary's. In the semifinal last year, Mount St. Mary's knocked down 47 percent of its 3-pointers all while forcing Robert Morris into a chilly 5-of-19 (26.3) performance beyond the arc. It was enough for the Mount to claim a 69-60 win and shock RMU. It was also a lesson that's carried over into 2013-14. In the two games against Mount St. Mary's this year, Robert Morris has combined to shoot just 20 3-pointers. They're going for higher percentage shots, trying to turn Mount St. Mary's activity into a disadvantage for the Mount. Mount St. Mary's is also shooting below 26 percent on 3-pointers in the last two contests against RMU. By limiting Mount's ability to hit 3-pointers and by going for better looks on offense, Robert Morris can neutralize the Mount for a third time.
The other semifinal is less complex. Wagner is just a bad match-up for Bryant. The Seahawks are physical and they've taken the same approach to the Bulldogs as Robert Morris. Alex Francis can do whatever he likes (he had 26 points the last time out against Wagner), but Dyami Starks and Corey Maynard can't be let loose. It's worked. Starks and Maynard went 8-of-23 earlier this year against the Seahawks and didn't make a 3-pointer. Wash, rinse, repeat in the semifinals.
NEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Robert Morris 69, Wagner 65
Critics
might cry out that a site covering Robert Morris would naturally pick
the Colonials to win. ColonialsCorner
understands the argument, but the stats back up the pick. Robert Morris is the most balanced team in the league. If not for an inexplicable cold spell in the Spiro Center on Saturday, that 59-48 loss to the Seahawks would have looked a lot different. That said, if this potential game was played in the Spiro Center, Wagner would be the favorite.
The two teams match up very well. Robert Morris' defense was actually quite good on Saturday (they held the Seahawks to 59 points, after all), and if not for Marcus Burton going into his version of the NBA Jam "on fire" mode, things would have been interesting, if a bit ugly.
Robert Morris did a lot of things better defensively on the road than it did in the previous meeting. For the first time this season, it was the offense that failed the Colonials. Andrew Toole shared something key in that regard earlier this season. Toole has preached the same things day in and day out, but the Colonials seem to grasp his concepts when they see it first hand. Considering the rivalry between these two, if they meet in the final, Saturday's loss will be brought up frequently. And as we've seen, Robert Morris plays exceptionally well when it has a chip on its shoulder or its back is against the wall. That should be enough for them to go dancing.
This post was edited on 3/4 3:30 PM by Andrew_Chiappazzi
But there are some trends. In the last ten years, the No. 1 seed has won the tournament five times. That's a 1-in-2 chance over the decade, but that's better than any other seed. In fact, if you're not one of the top four seeds, forget it. No team outside of the top four has won the NEC Tournament in the last decade.
Sorry, Mount St. Mary's, CCSU, St. Francis (Pa.) and Fairleigh Dickinson, but 2014 won't be your year. You may win a game - maybe even two - but you're not going dancing.
Of the other three seeds besides Numero Uno, each has won at least once. The two best options are for the No. 2 seed and the No. 4 seed, as both have won twice. Mount St. Mary's (2007-08) and LIU Brooklyn (2012-13) were the latest to do it as No. 4 seeds, while Robert Morris (2009-10) and Fairleigh Dickinson (2004-05) did it as No. 2 seeds. the only No. 3 seed to advance was Monmouth in 2005-06.
The only other common thread is that the champions have generally had the league's best offensive to defensive efficiency differential. It hasn't always been positive - the NEC in the early 2000s was pretty awful in that regard - but the best in that category has almost always moved on. Most years, that team has been carried by one of the league's best defensive efficiency ratings (both overall and in NEC play), and bolstered that with an average or better offense. LIU upset the applecart a bit with their pro-offense push, so nothing is a guarantee, but there's no one like the Blackbirds in this year's field.
All of this is a long winded way of saying that ColonialsCorner expects to see familiar faces in the final.
QUARTERFINALS
#1 Robert Morris 71, #8 Fairleigh Dickinson 62
#2 Wagner 68, #7 Central Connecticut State 59
#3 Bryant 75, #6 St. Francis (Pa) 62
#5 Mount St. Mary's 76, #4 St. Francis Brooklyn 74
Motivation will be a major factor for Robert Morris moving forward. The semifinal loss to Mount St. Mary's last year still burns, even though they've beaten the Mount twice this year. Robert Morris just saw FDU when the Colonials weren't motivated and were down to seven guys. That won't be an issue this time around, though FDU has enough weapons to keep it close for a while. My gut says CCSU as the upset, but my gut's notoriously inconsistent. Wagner's done especially well when facing teams the second time around; Jamion Christian's crew does really well with adjustments.
CCSU should actually be upset that they couldn't quite turn it on a touch sooner, because the Blue Devils would be a major threat to upset Bryant. Instead, the Bulldogs should survive a St. Francis (Pa.) squad in the midst of a tailspin. Finally, Mount St. Mary's is just the better overall team, and St. Francis Brooklyn has a really bad habit of trying to run with up tempo teams when it can't. The Terriers are just 1-3 against the more freewheeling teams of the NEC.
SEMIFINALS
#1 Robert Morris 72, #4 Mount St. Mary's 65
#2 Wagner 74, #3 Bryant 61
We've come full circle. But this time, Robert Morris knows how to beat Mount St. Mary's. In the semifinal last year, Mount St. Mary's knocked down 47 percent of its 3-pointers all while forcing Robert Morris into a chilly 5-of-19 (26.3) performance beyond the arc. It was enough for the Mount to claim a 69-60 win and shock RMU. It was also a lesson that's carried over into 2013-14. In the two games against Mount St. Mary's this year, Robert Morris has combined to shoot just 20 3-pointers. They're going for higher percentage shots, trying to turn Mount St. Mary's activity into a disadvantage for the Mount. Mount St. Mary's is also shooting below 26 percent on 3-pointers in the last two contests against RMU. By limiting Mount's ability to hit 3-pointers and by going for better looks on offense, Robert Morris can neutralize the Mount for a third time.
The other semifinal is less complex. Wagner is just a bad match-up for Bryant. The Seahawks are physical and they've taken the same approach to the Bulldogs as Robert Morris. Alex Francis can do whatever he likes (he had 26 points the last time out against Wagner), but Dyami Starks and Corey Maynard can't be let loose. It's worked. Starks and Maynard went 8-of-23 earlier this year against the Seahawks and didn't make a 3-pointer. Wash, rinse, repeat in the semifinals.
NEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Robert Morris 69, Wagner 65
Critics
might cry out that a site covering Robert Morris would naturally pick
the Colonials to win. ColonialsCorner
understands the argument, but the stats back up the pick. Robert Morris is the most balanced team in the league. If not for an inexplicable cold spell in the Spiro Center on Saturday, that 59-48 loss to the Seahawks would have looked a lot different. That said, if this potential game was played in the Spiro Center, Wagner would be the favorite.
The two teams match up very well. Robert Morris' defense was actually quite good on Saturday (they held the Seahawks to 59 points, after all), and if not for Marcus Burton going into his version of the NBA Jam "on fire" mode, things would have been interesting, if a bit ugly.
Robert Morris did a lot of things better defensively on the road than it did in the previous meeting. For the first time this season, it was the offense that failed the Colonials. Andrew Toole shared something key in that regard earlier this season. Toole has preached the same things day in and day out, but the Colonials seem to grasp his concepts when they see it first hand. Considering the rivalry between these two, if they meet in the final, Saturday's loss will be brought up frequently. And as we've seen, Robert Morris plays exceptionally well when it has a chip on its shoulder or its back is against the wall. That should be enough for them to go dancing.
This post was edited on 3/4 3:30 PM by Andrew_Chiappazzi
